Bitcoin crossed back above $80,000 for the first time in three months on Monday, extending a five-week rally that has pushed the asset up 22%. The move comes despite on-chain metrics that show participation at levels not seen since the depths of the 2024 bear market — daily active wallets are hovering near 531,000 and new wallet creation around 203,000, both at two-year lows.
Wallet creation at two-year lows
The low activity figures are a double-edged sword. Santiment noted that historically, price increases not backed by growing on-chain participation tend to be fragile. But the firm also pointed out that activity bottoms can set the stage for a larger move upward. For now, the network isn't seeing a flood of new users piling in — it's a relatively thin rally.
Sunday's profit spike
Santiment recorded net realized profits of $207.56 million on Sunday, the highest single-day spike this month. The firm characterized it as a bullish stress test: Bitcoin cleared $80,000 despite heavy supply hitting the market. Meanwhile, on-chain analyst Darkfost reported that short-term holder inflows in profit measured around 13,000 BTC, and weekly STH inflows on Binance sat at 36,500 BTC — among the lowest of the cycle. That suggests the selling pressure from shorter-term traders isn't overwhelming demand, supporting consolidation above $80,000.
Where we are in the bear market
Michael Nadeau, an analyst at The DeFi Report, observed that the BTC Spot Volume Delta flipped positive for only the second time this bear market. In prior cycles, similar flips preceded corrections. He also drew a comparison to 2022, when there were four significant flushes — the third occurred a little over seven months into the bear market, and the final flush came 12-plus months in. The current bear market is in its seventh month, placing it roughly at the same point as 2022's third flush. That doesn't guarantee a repeat, but it gives traders a timeline to watch.
A supercycle peak in sight?
Analyst Plan C offered a longer-range forecast, projecting a Bitcoin supercycle peak above $250,000 in late 2027 to early 2028, starting from the November 2022 low of $16,000. That kind of call is inherently speculative, but it reflects a camp that sees the current consolidation as a mid-cycle pause rather than the end of the bull run. Whether that plays out will depend on whether on-chain activity recovers before the next flush arrives.
