Bitcoin has recovered from a multi-year low hit in early July and is now battling to reclaim $65,000. A bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart — the same signal that preceded a 700% rally from the 2022 bear market bottom — has reappeared, sparking debate among analysts about whether the worst is over.
A familiar signal
The last time this RSI divergence showed up was during the 2022 bear cycle. Back then, Bitcoin bottomed around $16,000 before rallying to over $126,000 three years later. If the current pattern were to mimic that move exactly, Bitcoin could reach over $500,000 per unit. That's a big if, but the signal has a track record.
Analysts split on timing
Altcoin Sherpa noted that the 200-period exponential moving average on the hourly chart has flipped for the first time in months. Still, he cautioned that Bitcoin needs to reclaim $65,000 to confirm the bottom. Michaël van de Poppe is more direct: he advises buying at current levels rather than waiting for a potential drop to $40,000, calling it a 'phenomenal opportunity'. He warns that many investors expecting a drop to $40,000 may end up buying back at $90,000 if the dip doesn't occur.
The $40,000 trap
Van de Poppe's warning highlights a classic dilemma. If you wait for a deeper correction and it never comes, you miss the move. The risk of sitting on the sidelines while Bitcoin runs is real. The timing isn't great for those hoping for a clean entry at $40,000 — the market might not give them that chance.
For now, all eyes are on $65,000. If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold that level, the bullish divergence could gain real traction. If it fails, the $40,000 level remains a possibility. The next few days will tell which path the market takes.
