Polymarket bettors are all but certain Bitcoin will trade above $52,000 by Sunday, pricing the probability at 99.95%. Separately, a single trader opened a roughly $28 million notional Ethereum long straddle with a $1,875 strike price ahead of the July 24 expiry, risking about $852,000 in premium. The two events underscore the aggressive positioning in crypto markets this week.
Polymarket puts 99.95% odds on Bitcoin above $52k by Sunday
The prediction market's contract for Bitcoin to clear $52,000 by July 20 is trading at near-certainty. That leaves essentially no room for a miss — a level of conviction rarely seen even in liquid prediction markets. The outcome will be known in just a few days.
Trader places $28M Ethereum straddle ahead of expiry
One whale-sized bet hit the Ethereum options chain on Friday: a long straddle at the $1,875 strike, expiring July 24. The trade gives the buyer the right to profit if ETH moves sharply in either direction. With $852,000 in premium at stake, the position is a bet on volatility — not direction. The trader will need a move beyond the breakeven points to see a profit.
Both positions will resolve this week — Bitcoin's threshold by Sunday, and the Ethereum straddle by Friday. The coming days will show whether the conviction holds.
