A CoinGecko study covering Bitcoin’s forward returns from May 1, 2013 through May 8, 2026 found that US holidays consistently outperform regular trading days. The average next-day Bitcoin return on a holiday was 0.77%, compared to 0.19% on non-holidays. Holidays beat regular days in 11 of the 14 calendar years studied.
New Year’s Day tops the list
New Year’s Day delivered the strongest average next-day gain at 2.01%, with an 84.6% win rate — 11 positive returns out of 13 observed years. Columbus Day matched that win rate, posting an average return of 1.70%. Christmas averaged a 1.46% gain, though its win rate was just 53.8%.
MLK Day, Independence Day drag
Not every holiday is bullish. Martin Luther King Jr. Day recorded the worst average next-day return: negative 0.84%. That figure is heavily skewed by an 18.65% drop on January 15, 2018. Independence Day also averaged a negative next-day return of 0.26%. Veterans Day showed a mean gain of 1.75%, but its win rate sat below 50% — a few big rallies distorted the average.
Day of week matters little
The study confirmed what many traders suspect: the specific weekday or weekend you buy Bitcoin has almost no effect on long-term returns. Over a one-year holding period, average annual gains across weekdays fell within a 2.4 percentage point range. Weekdays averaged a 0.21% positive next-day return; weekends clocked 0.22% — a statistically insignificant gap.
Bitcoin above $80,000 after turbulent week
The findings arrive as Bitcoin trades above $80,000 after briefly slipping below that level earlier in the week. The recent dip was driven by falling exchange outflows, aggressive short buildup from derivatives traders, heavy leveraged long liquidations, rising US CPI and PPI inflation data, and concentrated whale selling. Whether the holiday effect can provide a near-term tailwind remains an open question — the calendar doesn’t list another US federal holiday until June 19 (Juneteenth).
