A key Bitcoin indicator that tracks selling pressure has moved into a zone analysts label 'high-risk,' according to data from Swissblock. The shift comes as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which had steadily accumulated positions through March and April, saw their buying pattern reverse in May. The gauge's latest reading suggests sellers are gaining the upper hand after months of steady institutional buying.
What the gauge shows
The Swissblock gauge measures the balance of buying and selling pressure across Bitcoin markets. When it enters the high-risk zone, it flags an elevated probability of near-term price weakness. The current reading marks the first time the gauge has hit that level since late 2025, according to the data. Swissblock did not provide a specific price forecast but noted the signal warrants attention.
ETF buying sputters
Despite the warning, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have accumulated a net total of 4,500 BTC since the start of 2026. That means the funds are still in positive territory for the year. But May reversed the trajectory. The buying binge that pushed inflows through March and April has stalled. The ETFs went from consistent daily additions to a more mixed pattern this month, reflecting hesitation among institutional investors.
March and April buildup reversed
The reversal is notable because those two months had built a clear buying trend. March saw steady accumulation, and April extended it. Now that pattern has snapped. The timing isn't great for bulls — the selling pressure gauge turning high-risk just as ETF demand softens creates a tricky setup. Swissblock's data doesn't assign a cause, but the confluence is hard to ignore.
The key question now is how long the gauge stays in the red. If selling pressure persists, the 4,500 BTC net ETF accumulation for 2026 could erode. For now, traders are watching the next Swissblock update for any sign the gauge is easing back into a neutral range.
