Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis has fallen below the adjusted long-term holder level, a crossover that blockchain analytics platform Cryptoquant says historically signals the end of a bear market. The shift suggests the current bear phase may be entering its final stage, mirroring patterns seen in previous bitcoin cycles.
The crossover signal
The short-term holder cost basis represents the average price at which recent buyers acquired their coins, while the adjusted long-term holder level reflects the average cost for investors who have held for longer periods. When the short-term basis drops below the long-term level, it indicates that newer buyers are underwater relative to longer-term holders, a condition that has preceded major market bottoms in past cycles.
Cryptoquant's analysis
According to data from the blockchain analytics firm, the crossover occurred this week. Cryptoquant analysts noted that similar crossovers in previous bitcoin cycles marked the transition into the final stage of the bear market, often followed by a prolonged accumulation phase before a new bull run. The firm did not provide a specific timeline for a potential recovery, but emphasized that the metric has historically been a reliable indicator of market exhaustion.
Previous cycle patterns
In prior bear markets, the short-term holder cost basis crossing below the long-term level has coincided with periods of maximum financial pain for recent buyers. The pattern was observed during the 2018-2019 bear market and again in 2022-2023. In both cases, bitcoin prices eventually bottomed out within months of the crossover, though the exact timing varied. The current cycle has seen bitcoin trade in a range for much of 2026, with the crossover adding to the case that the worst may be over.
What comes next
The next concrete milestone to watch is whether bitcoin can hold above the short-term holder cost basis level, which would indicate that new buyers are no longer under water. If the metric continues to trend lower, it could signal further downside. However, the historical precedent suggests that the market is closer to the end of the bear phase than the beginning. Traders and analysts will be watching for a sustained period of low volatility and accumulation, which typically follows the crossover.
