Bitcoin lost the $75,000 level and is trading around $72,600 after breaking below the $74,000–$75,000 support zone. The move extends a downtrend that began when the May high near $82,000 was rejected, and the asset has been printing lower highs and lower lows since then. The breakdown comes as on-chain metrics send mixed signals: long-term holder (LTH) supply hit a record 15.8 million BTC, but one research shop warns that might not be the bullish flag many assume.
Record LTH supply, but at what cost?
Conventional on-chain analysis reads rising LTH supply as a vote of confidence — coins moving off exchanges, fewer tokens available for trading, a structural supply squeeze. But XWIN Research Japan flips that interpretation. The firm argues the record may indicate a shortage of new buyers, with coins simply aging into the LTH category by default rather than through deliberate accumulation. “If holding periods extend simply because nobody is buying, that’s not conviction — that’s stagnation,” the firm’s latest note suggests.
Part of the increase also reflects older Coinbase-held coins maturing into the LTH bucket through time, not active HODLing. That muddies the signal further.
Whale and dolphin demand fades
Larger wallets aren’t picking up the slack. Whale holdings in the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC range have stopped growing and are now trending toward negative year-over-year growth. So-called dolphin balances — wallets with 100 to 1,000 BTC, a proxy for ETF and corporate demand — have slowed significantly since late 2025. The slowdown matches other demand-side weakness: ETF flows have been deteriorating, the Coinbase Premium has turned negative, active addresses are declining, and on-chain demand metrics have been soft for an extended stretch.
This isn’t a flash crash or a one-day panic. All those signals have been drifting lower together for weeks.
Technical breakdown
Bitcoin is now testing the confluence of the 100-day moving average and a major horizontal demand zone between $72,000 and $73,000. That zone has held for months, but the repeated lower highs and lower lows since the May peak suggest momentum is firmly bearish. If that level fails, there’s not much beneath it until $65,000–$66,000, the next identified demand area.
For now, the market is watching whether the $72,000–$73,000 band holds. A reclaim of $75,000 would change the picture quickly, but the on-chain and technical data both point toward more downside before any relief.
