Bitcoin traded near $61,100 on June 9 after sliding about 10% on the week, pressured by a ninth straight day of spot ETF outflows and surprisingly strong U.S. jobs data that dims the case for rate cuts. The drop puts BTC more than 50% below its October 2025 peak above $126,000, and the market is still waiting for a clear bottom signal.
The macro pressure
The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May — more than double the roughly 80,000 economists expected — and April’s figure was revised up to 179,000. That gives the Federal Reserve little reason to ease policy anytime soon. For risk assets like crypto, a higher-for-longer rate environment is a headwind that’s hard to shake.
Wintermute attributed the decline to U.S. institutional selling and ETF outflows, not panic. Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged their ninth straight day of outflows in late May, with the streak totaling about $2.97 billion through May 30. No clear sign of returning inflows has emerged.
MicroStrategy’s symbolic sale
MicroStrategy sold 32 BTC — its first disposal since 2022. The firm called the sale immaterial in size, but it’s a symbolic signal from a company that’s been one of Bitcoin’s biggest corporate holders. The timing isn’t great, even if the amount is tiny.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) tried to steady nerves. “Bitcoin won’t be ‘dead’ for too long. Don’t panic,” he said.
Retail buying, whales trimming
On-chain data from Santiment paints a split picture. Wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC raised their collective balance by 0.36% over two weeks — retail buyers are stepping in to absorb dips. Meanwhile, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC trimmed theirs by 0.20%. Large wallets keep cutting exposure even as smaller ones accumulate.
That pattern has Santiment cautious. Durable bottoms usually arrive with retail capitulation, not retail conviction, and “widespread surrender simply isn’t showing up yet,” the firm noted. Some long-term investors have started buying at current levels, viewing risk/reward as more attractive on a multi-year horizon, but that’s not the same as a market-wide washout.
No capitulation in sight
Analysts say the bottom remains unconfirmed. Without retail panic or a catalyst for fresh institutional inflows, the market is stuck in a limbo where dips get bought but rallies lack conviction. The macro picture gets harder to ignore as the U.S. midterm elections approach — a period that often brings policy uncertainty.
For now, Bitcoin is holding above $60,000, but the data suggests the real test hasn’t arrived yet.
