Bitcoin touched an intraday low of $82,775.94 on Tuesday, a drop that lands the same week consumers turned noticeably gloomier about borrowing costs. The Conference Board's September consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 from 88.6 in August — the third straight monthly decline in its expectations component, which slid to 63.6.
Roughly 68.4% of surveyed households now expect higher interest rates over the next 12 months, up 5.2 percentage points from August. The survey ran Sept. 1-23, meaning it overlapped with the Fed's Sept. 16 decision to raise rates to a 3.75%-4.00% target range.
Inflation expectations creep higher
Average expected inflation over the next 12 months rose to 6.1%, and the median climbed to 5.1%. Both readings are up 0.3 percentage points from August. Those aren't panic numbers, but they're moving the wrong way, and they give the Fed little reason to soften its tone.
The bond market has already priced that in. The 10-year Treasury yielded 5.24% on Sept. 28, with the two-year at 4.92%. When the risk-free end of the curve pays that much, assets like bitcoin have to compete harder for the same dollars.
Labor data offers little clarity
August job openings came in at 7.1 million, little changed from July's revised 7.3 million — itself revised upward by 64,000. Hires held at 5.2 million, quits at 3.1 million, and layoffs and discharges at 1.6 million. The picture is stable, not weak. Stable labor markets keep the Fed comfortable staying tight.
ETF flows thin out
US-traded spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in a net $31 million on Sept. 28, according to the data in hand. That's a positive number, but it's smaller than each of the five preceding completed sessions. Inflows that decelerate five sessions in a row while price makes new local lows is worth paying attention to. It suggests the dip-buyers aren't showing up in the same size they were earlier in September.
What's on the calendar
Two data prints sit between here and the weekend. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to publish August personal income and outlays on Sept. 30, including the PCE inflation figures the Fed watches most closely. Then the September employment report lands Oct. 2.
If PCE comes in hot, the rate-expectation reading from the Conference Board stops looking like a survey quirk and starts looking prescient. Bitcoin's Tuesday low is the level traders will be marking against both prints.
