Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Monday, extending a pullback that began after stronger-than-expected US jobs data raised the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike. The move comes as markets now price in about a 60% chance of a hike on September 16, a sharp shift in sentiment that has weighed on risk assets across the board.
Jobs report shakes rate-cut hopes
The US added 162,000 jobs in August, while unemployment held at 4.1%. That's not a blowout number, but it's solid enough to keep the Fed on a hawkish path. Two-year Treasury yields jumped above 4.34% after the report, a sign that traders are bracing for tighter policy rather than cuts.
For bitcoin, the timing isn't great. The asset had climbed to $82,400 on September 3 before reversing, and it's been chopping between roughly $77,200 and $82,100 since. Monday's dip below $80,000 puts the lower end of that range back in play.
ETF demand holds up — for now
Despite the price weakness, US spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in nearly $1 billion in net inflows last week. That's a meaningful vote of confidence, and it's the main reason bitcoin still sits about 42% above its July low.
Bitfinex analysts say this week's inflation report will be an important test for bitcoin. The question is whether ETF buying can stay strong while short-term rates remain high. If it does, high rates may no longer be the main factor capping bitcoin's recovery.
A supply hurdle ahead
There's also a potential selling wall forming. More than 71% of bitcoin's supply is currently in profit, approaching the historical average of 74.7%. That level has often preceded profit-taking, and it could add downward pressure if prices stall.
A weekly close above $82,100 would strengthen the recovery case, but a hotter inflation print could do the opposite — increasing pressure on the Fed to raise rates and sending yields higher. That's the setup traders are watching.
The inflation report lands this week, and it's the next real catalyst. A cool number could revive rate-cut hopes and push bitcoin back toward $82,000. A hot one likely means more pain for risk assets, with $77,200 as the key support to watch.
