Bitcoin hit a six-week low on Thursday, extending a slide that has rattled short-term bulls. Prediction market odds are now climbing that the asset will fall below $70,000 in the next few days — and traders are increasingly pricing in that outcome by the end of May.
The slide
The move lower came without a single headline trigger. Instead, it's been a slow bleed through the week, with each failed bounce drawing fresh selling. Six weeks ago the price was much higher; now it's back to levels not seen since mid-April. The drop has been broad, dragging altcoins down with it.
Volume picked up on the way down, suggesting some traders are cutting positions rather than buying the dip. That's a shift from recent months, where every selloff was met with aggressive accumulation.
Betting on a breakdown
On prediction markets, the implied probability of Bitcoin trading below $70,000 before June 1 has risen sharply. The contracts have seen heavy activity, with odds jumping from under 30% a week ago to well over 50% as of this morning. That kind of move in a short window signals conviction, not just hedging.
The markets don't say why — they just reflect what people are willing to bet. And right now, the crowd is betting on a break.
Trader conviction
Among spot traders, the mood is similarly bearish. Social channels and trading desks report a growing consensus that $70,000 will give way before the month is out. Some point to weakening momentum; others to a lack of fresh catalysts. Few are calling for a V-shaped recovery.
The timing isn't great. End-of-month settlement and option expiry are just days away, which can amplify moves. A close below $70,000 would mark a psychological blow — one that could set the tone for June.
None of this means the floor is gone. Bitcoin has bounced from lower levels before. But for now, the path of least resistance is lower, and traders are positioning accordingly.
