Bitcoin pushed from $64,000 to nearly $80,000 over the past weeks, but the rally has stalled at around $77,000. The pause lines up with a loaded macro calendar — a key inflation reading, revised GDP, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole debut. The next move could hinge on what those numbers say.
PCE lands Wednesday
The July Personal Consumption Expenditures report is due Wednesday. Economists expect core PCE to tick up slightly month over month and hold at 3.2% annually. PCE is the Fed's preferred gauge for underlying inflation, so it's the one that actually matters when rate decisions are made.
A hotter-than-expected print would strengthen the case that rates stay elevated — or go up again. That would likely push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, a headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin. A softer number eases the pressure on the Fed to tighten, giving crypto room to run.
GDP revision and a Fed split
Wednesday also brings the revised second-quarter GDP. The advance reading showed annualized growth of 1.5%, down from 2.1% in the first quarter. That's a clear slowdown, but it hasn't exactly spooked the Fed. In July, the central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% — but three policymakers voted for a hike anyway. The dissent matters.
Meanwhile, longer-term yields have been climbing on their own. The 10-year Treasury recently traded around 4.73%, and the 30-year pushed above 5.2%. Those are levels that tend to suck liquidity out of risk assets, and they're part of why Bitcoin's rally has hit a ceiling.
Warsh takes the stage Friday
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday. Jackson Hole is where the Fed's thinking often gets clarified, and a first speech from a new chair carries extra weight. Warsh has been publicly skeptical of the last few rate hikes — or at least the pace of them — but the market will listen for any hint on whether the Fed is done or has more tightening to do.
Before that, there's also the August consumer confidence and new home sales numbers Tuesday, and Nvidia earnings Wednesday. But for Bitcoin, the real test is the inflation data and Warsh's tone. If PCE comes in hot and Warsh sounds hawkish, that $77,000 support could break. A cooler inflation reading and a neutral Warsh might be enough to push the price back toward $80,000.
