Bitcoin has slipped below the $80,000 mark, breaking out of its ascending channel on the daily chart and now testing a key support level near $75,000. As of early May, the asset is trading around $76,800, with bulls trying to hold the line against a potential drop toward the $70k–$72k range. The move invalidates a bullish pattern that had been in place for weeks, and the 4-hour chart is showing bearish signals.
Why $75k is the line in the sand
Traders are watching $75,000 closely. That level lines up with a recent bullish order block and a short-term swing low — basically a zone where buyers stepped in before. If it breaks, there isn't much obvious support until the $70k–$72k area, which also coincides with the 100-day moving average and the lower edge of the failed ascending channel. The timing isn't great: Bitcoin already failed to reclaim the 200-day moving average at $81k, which is now acting as overhead resistance.
On-chain signals flip
The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has crept up to 1.005, just above the 1.0 threshold. That means more coins are moving at a profit than at a loss — a shift from the loss-heavy pattern seen in recent weeks. It's not a screaming bullish signal by itself, but it shows that the market isn't panicking yet. The 4-hour RSI, however, has dropped below 35 and is approaching oversold territory after a bearish divergence formed at the prior highs. That kind of divergence often precedes a deeper move down if the momentum doesn't reverse quickly.
What the moving averages are saying
The 100-day moving average is still below price, currently heading toward $72k from underneath. That's a potential support confluence if Bitcoin drops that far. Meanwhile the 200-day MA sits at $81k, a level the market couldn't hold. Having both MAs below price is technically bullish in a structural sense, but the short-term price action is telling a different story — the channel breakdown suggests sellers are in control for now.
What to watch next
The immediate question is whether $75k holds as support in the coming sessions. A failure there would open the door to the $70k–$72k zone, where the 100-day MA and channel bottom converge. On the upside, reclaiming $80k and then $81k (the 200-day MA) would be needed to repair the chart pattern. For now, the ball is in the bears' court, and the next few days will determine if this is a shakeout or the start of a bigger correction.
