Bitcoin has spent more than two months below $70,000, and a fresh report from Bitfinex Alpha suggests the next big move depends on a rotation that hasn't happened yet. The report argues that two of three conditions for a rally are in place — lower expected rates and already-loose financial conditions — but the third, capital flowing from equities and tech into crypto, remains missing.
Why the macro backdrop isn't enough
US inflation eased to 3.40% in July from 3.50% in June, helped by cheaper energy. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates in the coming weeks, and short-term Treasury yields are dropping. Stocks are loving it — the S&P 500 keeps hitting records, and risk appetite is clearly back.
None of that has spilled into crypto. Bitfinex points out that tech and AI infrastructure have created supply-driven inflation, but the capital generated there has stayed in equities. The conditions are ripe for a Bitcoin rally, yet the money isn't showing up.
Where the money isn't going
The numbers tell the story. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a weekly outflow of roughly $385 million during a week when the S&P 100 soared. Corporate Bitcoin treasuries have turned negative — Strategy, the largest corporate holder, slowed its acquisitions and even sold some holdings this year. Stablecoin supply has also shrunk, falling below its May record.
That's not a market begging for upside. It's a market that's been losing participants even as the traditional financial world throws a party.
A thin market cuts both ways
Bitfinex notes the market is thin, which means small shifts in flows could trigger outsized moves — in either direction. If capital finally rotates from equities into crypto, Bitcoin could reach or surpass $70,000. If outflows persist, a slide toward $57,000 is on the table.
The report doesn't pick a side. It just lays out the two paths, and both are plausible.
With the Fed on hold and stocks at records, the next catalyst for Bitcoin may be whether that equity money finally decides to move. So far, it hasn't.
