Bitcoin is trading near $65,400 on Sunday, down 0.6% on the day, after swinging between $65,300 and $66,300 in the last 24 hours. The world's largest cryptocurrency remains roughly 45% below its all-time high near $126,000 from last October, and analysts point to a familiar culprit: capital flowing out of crypto and into AI stocks.
Capital flows to AI stocks
Analyst Wise Crypto attributes Bitcoin's stagnation to the massive spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure by Big Tech — between $190 billion and $205 billion this year alone. Nvidia's data center revenue is up 92% year over year, and AI-linked stocks have climbed roughly 69% since January. Over the same period, Bitcoin is down about 25%.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $6.9 billion in outflows during May and June, though the tide has turned slightly: nearly $1 billion flowed in over seven consecutive days, and this week alone ETFs have taken in $439 million, according to analyst Axel Adler. The so-called 'Coinbase discount' — which had been running for 78 days — has also started to narrow.
Macro headwinds
Two-year Treasury yields are near 4.3% and ten-year yields near 4.6%, keeping the dollar strong and investors cautious on risk assets. Market watcher Ted Pillows flagged Brent crude near $94 a barrel after US-Iran strikes, and a ten-year TIPS real yield of about 2.31% — a post-pandemic high — as additional drags on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Wise Crypto stated: 'BTC needs lower inflation, falling yields & stronger demand to break $60K-$70K range.'
Technical outlook
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe says Bitcoin has reached its target area. Holding above the 21-day moving average keeps near-term gains possible, with $68,000 as next resistance and a break above potentially leading to $73,000. Bitfinex analysts point to a reaction zone between $67,900 and $68,300, noting that short-term holders who bought in that range tend to sell once they recover their positions, potentially capping rallies.
Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO flags a developing double bottom pattern that requires a weekly close above $83,000 to gain traction, with a target of $173,000. A weekly close below roughly $51,000 would invalidate it.
Bitcoin is up close to 5% over 30 days, but the path higher remains narrow. The next concrete test: whether the weekly candle can close above $83,000 to confirm the double bottom — or whether the $67,900-$68,300 reaction zone caps any rally short of that.
