Bitcoin's supply in loss metric has crossed 10.46 million coins — meaning more than half of all circulating BTC is now held at a price above the current market value. The reading, confirmed by Glassnode data highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez, matches levels that historically preceded major cycle bottoms. Bitcoin itself ticked up 2.5% in the past 24 hours to around $62,746, after finding support near the $60,000 mark.
What the supply-in-loss number says
The metric tracks coins last moved when BTC was trading higher than today. When that figure surpasses 10 million, it usually signals that a large chunk of holders are sitting on unrealized losses — and that the willingness to sell at a loss is fading. Martinez points out that when selling pressure dries up because fewer investors are willing to realize losses, the probability of a market bottom increases. The current 10.46 million figure is the highest since the 2022 bear market trough.
Past cycles and the 10M threshold
In late 2018 and again around 2022, supply in loss crossed 10 million coins just as Bitcoin was putting in cycle lows. Those bottoms eventually led to multi-year bull runs. But it's not a perfect signal. In 2015, the metric never reached 10 million before the eventual reversal — meaning a high supply in loss isn't a necessary condition for a bottom. That historical exception keeps the current reading from being a guaranteed call.
Martinez on selling pressure
Martinez, citing Glassnode data, notes that the key dynamic isn't the raw number but the behavior it reflects. When most underwater holders refuse to sell, the market becomes less vulnerable to cascading sell-offs. The 2.5% price bounce in the past day could hint at that exhaustion of sellers, but Martinez stops short of calling a definitive floor. The data is worth watching, he implies, but not a trigger to go all-in.
A higher bar for a bottom?
There's a catch. The current circulating supply is roughly 19.7 million coins, up from about 17.4 million in 2018 and 19.2 million in 2022. That means the absolute threshold of 10 million BTC in loss may need to be higher to represent the same proportion of the network. If the same percentage of supply needs to be underwater for a true bottom, the metric could still drift higher — allowing for more downside before the cycle turns. So while 10.46 million is eye-catching, it may not be the final number.
For now, the market is watching whether Bitcoin can hold the $60,000 support zone and whether supply in loss continues to climb or starts to shrink as the price recovers. The next few weeks will test whether history repeats or if this time the threshold has moved.
