The share of Bitcoin's circulating supply sitting in profit is creeping toward 60%, a level that's historically coincided with market tops and sharp reversals. Analysts tracking the metric caution that the current uptick may be another head fake, similar to the rally that unraveled at the start of June.
The 60% threshold
When more than half of all coins are in the green, selling pressure tends to build as holders lock in gains. The last time the supply-in-profit figure pushed past 60% was in late May, just before a sudden downturn wiped out the advance. Now it's back, and the pattern is raising eyebrows.
A familiar pattern
The recovery that broke down in early June looked convincing at first — prices climbed, sentiment improved, and the supply-in-profit ratio rose. Then it collapsed. Analysts now describe that move as a 'fake recovery' and warn that the current run could 'roll back over' in a similar fashion. The question is whether the market has learned anything from the last whipsaw.
What the metric says
Supply in profit is a straightforward on-chain gauge: it measures the percentage of Bitcoin that was last moved at a price below the current one. A reading near 60% doesn't guarantee a sell-off, but it does signal that a large chunk of the market is sitting on paper gains. In a market still digesting the June breakdown, that's enough to make traders cautious.
For now, the metric keeps climbing. Whether it holds above 60% or rolls over again is the open question — and the one that's likely to define the next few weeks.
