Bitcoin has gained nearly 30% since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, outpacing gold and the S&P 500. The rally comes as two Senate events this week — a Monday vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve chair and a Thursday markup of the CLARITY Act in the Banking Committee — could hand crypto a political win. Even deepening geopolitical turmoil hasn’t knocked bitcoin off its upward track.
Bitcoin’s war rally
Since a US airstrike killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, bitcoin has climbed steadily. That’s not what traditional logic would predict. Oil is up 4.5% to $98.68 a barrel after President Trump rejected Iran’s peace proposal. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil flows, remains a central flashpoint. Yet bitcoin keeps rising. It’s behaving differently from stocks and commodities, shrugging off risks that would normally send it lower.
What happened with the peace talks
Peace talks had been expected to make progress by Wednesday. That hope evaporated after Trump rejected Iran’s counteroffer, which had included war reparations and unfreezing of blocked assets. The bitcoin market reacted sharply — initially dropping from $81,400 to $80,500 within 45 minutes of Trump’s post. But the dip lasted hours. The price recovered above $82,000 in under three hours and settled near $82,350. The move liquidated over $60 million in short positions during a four-hour window. The timing isn’t great for traders who bet against this rally.
The political backdrop in Washington
This week, two events in the Senate matter for crypto. On Monday, the full Senate votes on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, the Senate Banking Committee holds a markup session for the CLARITY Act, a bill aimed at clarifying crypto regulation. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, says both developments lean bullish for bitcoin. “Both the Warsh nomination and the CLARITY Act lean bullish for Bitcoin,” Thielen stated. Warsh is seen as more open to innovation than the current Fed leadership. The CLARITY Act, if it advances, would give the industry something it has long wanted: clearer rules.
What’s next
The war has now lasted ten weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it won’t end until Iran’s uranium sites are fully dismantled. That means oil prices could push higher, and the Strait of Hormuz stays a flashpoint. Bitcoin’s resilience will be tested again. The Senate votes this week are the next concrete milestones. If Warsh is confirmed and the CLARITY Act gets a markup, the bullish narrative gets more fuel. If they stall, the rally may have to stand on its own.
