Bitcoin touched an intraday low near $72,500 on Friday as April PCE inflation came in right on target, cementing expectations that interest rates won't budge through 2027. The move lower followed a brutal week for spot ETFs, which saw $733.4 million in net outflows on May 27 alone — the bulk of it from BlackRock's IBIT.
No surprises from the BEA
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported headline PCE inflation at 3.8% year over year, matching economist forecasts. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, landed at 3.3% — also in line with projections. The data changes nothing for the Federal Reserve: markets have already priced in unchanged rates through 2027, removing macro tailwinds as a near-term catalyst for Bitcoin.
ETF bleed accelerates
Tuesday's $733.4 million outflow was the largest single-day exodus in months. IBIT alone accounted for $527.8 million of that total. The selling pressure comes as Bitcoin has struggled to hold above the $73,000–$75,000 support zone it tested repeatedly this month. Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said the asset needs to reclaim $80,000 to confirm the bull thesis. Right now, it's nearly 10% below that level.
Geopolitical calm removes a crutch
The easing of US-Iran ceasefire talks has dialed back the geopolitical uncertainty that had been driving some safe-haven flows into Bitcoin. With tensions cooling, the market is left with fewer reasons to bid up the asset beyond its current range.
Polymarket currently prices a 57% probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026. If enacted, the bill would provide a federal regulatory framework for crypto, potentially shifting the narrative from macro headwinds to structural adoption. Until then, Bitcoin's path of least resistance looks lower unless it can decisively break back above $80,000.
