Bitcoin climbed back above $66,000 this week as the U.S. and Iran appeared to dial down a months-long diplomatic standoff. But a fresh note from BitMEX warns that Warren Buffett's $397 billion cash reserve — the largest on record for Berkshire Hathaway — might be a weight on the rally, not a neutral sidelined position.
The geopolitical trigger
Prices had drifted lower through late spring as tensions in the Middle East kept risk assets under pressure. Then came signals that both Washington and Tehran were ready to de-escalate: direct talks resumed in Geneva, and no new sanctions were announced for 12 consecutive days. Bitcoin reacted in hours, jumping from $62,800 to just over $66,000.
The move was sharp but not out of character. Crypto has been increasingly sensitive to macro geopolitics — a shift from its earlier framing as a non-correlated safe haven.
Why Buffett’s cash matters
BitMEX's research desk looked at Buffett's enormous cash position and came to a contrarian conclusion. In most market commentary, a cash pile is seen as dry powder — money waiting to be deployed into stocks, bonds, or other assets. But BitMEX argues that, given Buffett's public skepticism of crypto and his preference for productive assets, a $397 billion fiat reserve signals something else: a bet that inflation will cool and fiat purchasing power will hold.
“If the world’s most famous value investor is sitting on that much cash, it implies he sees limited opportunity in traditional markets — and zero in crypto,” the report said. “That’s a vote of no confidence in the very narrative that Bitcoin rallies on.”
The report stops short of calling a price ceiling, but it draws a direct line between a macro environment that makes Buffett hoard cash and a macro environment that could choke off liquidity for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Not everyone agrees
Some traders pushed back. One noted that Buffett's cash position has been a fixture for years — it's not a new variable. Another pointed out that Berkshire's cash has actually grown during Bitcoin's previous cycles, including the 2021 run to $69,000. “If it didn't kill the rally then, why would it kill it now?” the trader said.
Still, the timing isn't great. Bitcoin has been range-bound between $60,000 and $70,000 for most of 2026, and breakout attempts have faded fast. The rally this week is testing the upper end of that range.
What’s next
The next real test is whether Bitcoin can hold above $66,000 into the weekend. Options expiration on Friday could add volatility. Separately, Berkshire Hathaway is scheduled to release its quarterly portfolio update in early July — the first real look at whether Buffett has started to deploy any of that cash. If he hasn't, the BitMEX thesis gets a bit stronger.
