Bitcoin touched $73,300 early Friday after President Trump said the U.S. may lift the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz — a move markets read as a sign of détente with Iran. The price has since slipped slightly, sitting at roughly $73,100 at press time, according to CoinMarketCap. But the rally comes with a split among analysts, some calling a historic buy zone and others warning of a sharp pullback.
Bitcoin's geopolitical swing
The Strait of Hormuz blockade has been a flashpoint for months, driving up oil prices and stoking fears of a broader Middle East conflict. Trump's statement — that the blockade could be lifted as part of a draft agreement with Iran — gave risk assets a jolt. Bitcoin surged above $73,000 almost immediately, though the deal hasn't been ratified and no final decision has been announced. For crypto traders, the logic is straightforward: a peace deal reduces war-induced inflationary pressures, which is generally bullish for Bitcoin.
Analyst views diverge
Not everyone is convinced the rally has legs. Analyst Altcoin Sherpa noted Bitcoin showing weakness on lower timeframes, with a potential drop to $70,000 or lower. Another analyst, Colin, pointed to historical patterns: Bitcoin has dropped 77% or more from peak to bear market bottom in past cycles. If the cycle top was around $126,000, a 70% decline would put Bitcoin at $38,000. He also warned that delayed effects of low oil reserves could drag the S&P 500 lower, pulling Bitcoin down with it.
On the bullish side, analyst Vivek flagged that Bitcoin just entered a technical buy zone similar to 2018 and 2022, both of which preceded massive rallies — 1,700% and 660%, respectively. The timing, he argued, might be lining up again.
The peace deal factor
The U.S. and Iran have a draft agreement, but it's not signed. Trump hasn't given a final yes. That leaves a lot of uncertainty hanging over the market. If the deal goes through, analysts broadly agree it's a positive for Bitcoin, but if talks collapse or the blockade stays, the current rally could reverse fast. The market is pricing in optimism, but not yet certainty.
Bitcoin is sitting in a zone where the next catalyst — a peace deal or a breakdown in talks — will likely dictate direction. The unresolved question is whether the Hormuz blockade actually gets lifted. Until that's confirmed, expect volatility. The $70,000 level is the key support to watch on the downside, and a break below that could accelerate losses.
