Bitcoin crossed $65,000 on Wednesday for the first time in about a month, then slipped back under $63,000. The move followed softer US inflation data and marked the strongest reaction to positive economic news Bitcoin has shown in weeks — but the rally didn't last long, and on-chain data suggests why.
The move above $65,000
Wednesday's advance pushed Bitcoin to its highest level since mid-June. The trigger was a lower-than-expected CPI print, which sent risk assets higher across the board. But Bitcoin's gains evaporated almost as quickly as they appeared, with the price retreating below $63,000 by Thursday. The swift reversal points to heavy selling pressure just above $65,000.
Who's selling — and why it matters
Both long-term holders and short-term holders sold into the rebound, according to data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant. Long-term holders — typically the most stubborn cohort — increased their realized-loss volume as Bitcoin approached $66,000. Glassnode reports that more than 65% of exchange inflows right now come from long-term holders realizing losses, a pattern consistent with prior bear market phases.
Short-term holders who accumulated near the June lows also started taking profits at volumes last seen around the May peak. That's a double whammy: one group selling at a loss, the other selling at a profit. Together, they added enough supply to cap the rally.
ETF flows recover after Monday's dip
US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed some of that selling. Net inflows hit $181.1 million on Tuesday, $107.7 million on Wednesday, and $79 million on Thursday, recovering 87% of Monday's $424 million outflow. The week's net withdrawal stands at just $56 million, a far cry from the panic some expected after Monday's numbers.
Still, the ETF flows alone weren't enough to push Bitcoin through the resistance zone between $70,000 and $80,000, where a large concentration of options exposure sits. Bitcoin remains below the short-term holder cost basis near $69,000.
What the on-chain metrics say
CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Regime Score has been climbing steadily. It hit 34.7 on Thursday, up from -42.9 on June 26, and has rarely been below zero since July 2. The Regime Confidence metric jumped from 54.9% to 79.4% in the past 24 hours, with a 7-day average of 64.3%.
If the Regime Score can push above 50 with confidence near 80%, that would be a stronger signal that the recovery has real momentum. But for now, the data shows a market caught between buyers stepping in on macro news and sellers using every pop to exit.
Bitcoin has traded below the realized price of the 18-month-to-two-year UTXO cohort since early June — that realized price has risen to about $80,800. Until that gap closes, the path higher looks like a grind, not a breakout.
