Bitcoin briefly climbed above $80,000 on Monday, hitting an intraday high around $80,529, after Donald Trump announced 'Project Freedom' in connection with the Strait of Hormuz. The rally didn't stick — prices slipped back to $78,755 by press time — but the move keeps May in the green at +3.18% so far, extending what's already been two consecutive positive months.
What Trump said, what happened next
The catalyst was a geopolitical flashpoint. Trump's 'Project Freedom' announcement came alongside news that the U.S. deployed Navy guided-missile destroyers to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, per Reuters and AP. Iran's Fars news agency claimed missiles hit a US warship near Jask Island after it ignored warnings — a claim U.S. officials denied. Bitcoin traders reacted fast, pushing the price above $80,000 for the first time in weeks. But the breakout faded almost as quickly as it appeared.
March and April already in the black
This year's recovery has been uneven. Bitcoin fell 10.17% in January and another 14.94% in February. Then March posted a modest +1.81% gain, and April came in at +11.87%. May is currently showing a +3.18% gain. According to historical data, May has been positive about 60% of the time (8 out of 13 years) with an average return of +8% and a median of +3%. The current +3% sits right on that median.
The 2019 comparison that traders are talking about
Only once before — in 2019 — has Bitcoin posted gains in March, April, and May consecutively. That year followed a market bottom. Trader_XO and StrongHedge have been pointing out that context matters alongside the seasonality numbers. The 2019 pattern happened after a long bear market. This year's pattern follows a brutal January and February. Not a perfect parallel, but enough to get people watching.
May has also seen extreme swings: outsized gains above 52% in 2017 and 2019, and deep losses of -35.31% in 2021 and -15.6% in 2022. So far, 2026 is tracking closer to the median. But there's still half a month left, and the Strait of Hormuz situation isn't resolved. Traders are waiting to see if the $80,000 level gets retested — or if this week's news was just a one-day pop.
