Bitcoin Trades Near $87K Ahead of $8.5B Deribit Options Expiry as Losing Streak Threatens to Extend

Executive Summary

Bitcoin hovered around $87,000 on January 26, 2026, setting up a pivotal end-of-month stretch as the market headed into a large Deribit options expiry on January 30. The setup mattered for two reasons: BTC was at risk of logging a fourth consecutive negative monthly close, and positioning in the options market showed heavy interest clustered at the $100,000 call strike alongside an estimated “max pain” near $90,000.

What Happened

Bitcoin entered the final week of January trading near $87,000, with the month still tracking negative after declines in October, November, and December. A January loss would extend the run to four consecutive down months.

That type of four-month losing streak is historically uncommon for bitcoin. The last comparable stretch occurred in the 2018–2019 period, when BTC recorded six straight negative months.

Into that backdrop, the derivatives market faced a large scheduled event: a major bitcoin options expiry on Deribit dated January 30, 2026, with roughly $8.5 billion in notional open interest referenced. The distribution of strikes drew attention to concentrated interest in $100,000 call options for the Jan. 30 expiry—an expression of traders holding exposure to a move back toward six figures even as spot traded well below that level.

The same expiry was also framed around a “max pain” estimate near $90,000—an area often watched as an options-market magnet into settlement. At the same time, bitcoin’s multi-month pullback had already been severe: BTC had fallen roughly 36% from its October all-time high to the subsequent lows carved out during the decline.

Market Data Snapshot

Market Health Indicators

Why This Matters

For Traders

A large expiry with an estimated “max pain” near $90,000 places a clear reference level on the tape, particularly when spot has been swinging far below that mark. Concentrated positioning at the $100,000 call strike creates another widely watched threshold for gamma dynamics and post-expiry repositioning.

For Investors

A potential fourth straight negative monthly close would mark a rare persistence of downside momentum for bitcoin—something not seen since the 2018–2019 stretch. The selloff’s scale—roughly a 36% drop from the October all-time high to the pullback lows—also reframes sentiment after the prior cycle’s rapid upside move.

What Most Media Missed

The options market’s two most visible “targets” can point in opposite psychological directions at the same time: “max pain” near $90,000 is a near-term gravity point, while the $100,000 call crowding reflects a different trade—exposure to a sharp rebound even during a down-month regime. That split matters because it can amplify volatility rather than dampen it when price moves quickly between the two zones.

What Happens Next

Short-Term Outlook

With the Jan. 30 Deribit expiry now the key marker, traders will watch whether spot can reclaim the $90,000 region and stabilize, or whether weakness persists below the high-$70,000s/$80,000 area after month-end positioning clears.

Long-Term Scenarios

Bull case: A swift recovery back toward $90,000 followed by renewed pressure toward $100,000 as call exposure becomes relevant again and risk appetite improves.

Bear case: Failure to regain $90,000 keeps price action pinned below major resistance, extending the drawdown and reinforcing the streak narrative into February.

Historical Parallel

Bitcoin has endured multi-month sequences of negative closes before, but four straight down months would push the current stretch into rare territory. The 2018–2019 period delivered an even longer run with six consecutive negative months, while the 2022 bear market did not exceed three consecutive negative months—making the current setup unusual if January ultimately closes in the red.