Bitcoin dropped to roughly $61,500 on Thursday, its lowest since early February, as a wave of selling erased more than $1 billion in leveraged positions across the crypto market in 24 hours. The decline extends a month-long rout that has shaved 20% off the price. Sustained outflows from spot ETFs have reduced institutional demand, and overall demand for Bitcoin is contracting at a monthly pace of 232,000 BTC.
Long-term holders join the sell-off
Compass Point analyst Ed Engel reported that long-term holders sold about $2.4 billion in Bitcoin, and 26% of Bitcoin sold over the past 30 days came from investors who bought at prices above $90,000. Engel noted that top-buyer capitulation typically appears late in bear markets, making him more confident that BTC's bear market is in its late stages. It's the kind of pain that often signals the end, not the beginning, of a downturn.
Historical signals flash
Scott Melker, a widely followed trader, pointed to signals that have historically accompanied major lows — including an oversold weekly relative strength index that lined up with bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022. The previous three Bitcoin cycle bottoms occurred roughly 777, 889, and 924 days after their corresponding halving events. Bitcoin is now about 770 days past the April 2024 halving. Melker emphasized that when multiple independent signals point in the same direction, it's worth attention — but no single metric matters in isolation.
A long view from Alphractal
Joao Wedson, CEO of analytics firm Alphractal, suggested that Bitcoin could gain strong momentum from 2027 onward, with a potential 500% rise from 2026 to 2029. That's a forecast, not a guarantee — but it's based on the kind of cyclical patterns that have held through past bear markets. For now, the question is whether $61,500 holds. Engel's late-stage call adds weight, but no single curve tells the full story.
