Bitcoin shed nearly $4,000 over the past week, sliding from around $77,000 to briefly touch $72,600 on May 28. The dip has left traders scanning the next support levels, with one prominent analyst warning the bear market isn't over — and the worst could still come this autumn.
Why the drop matters
The move lower comes as U.S. economic data — ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment, and nonfarm payrolls — are due in the coming days. Markets are pricing in a dovish tilt from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, but not everyone is buying it. Doctor Profit, an analyst who called earlier phases of the downturn, says the market is approaching Stage 5 — the capitulation phase. He sees that stage starting once Bitcoin falls below $60,000, with a final bottom in the $40,000-$50,000 region, likely between September and October 2026.
Open interest tells a story
Bitcoin derivatives open interest (excluding CME) sits at roughly 351,000 BTC, down from nearly 375,000 BTC before a big liquidation event on October 10 that wiped out 71,000 BTC in positions. Since that flush, Binance has increased its open interest and market share, pointing to concentrated trading activity on the exchange. The open interest numbers suggest leverage has been dialed back, but not eliminated — and a break below $60,000 could trigger another wave of forced selling.
What traders are watching now
The immediate focus is on the economic data releases this week. If they come in hot, the Fed might not be as dovish as the market hopes, which could push Bitcoin lower. If they're weak, the narrative of rate cuts could give a short-term lift — but Doctor Profit remains skeptical that any bounce would last. The timing of the capitulation phase, he says, hinges on macro triggers lining up with Bitcoin's own cycle.
No one expects a V-shaped recovery. The question is how deep the next leg goes, and whether $60,000 holds or becomes a ceiling.
