Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is still ticking, but the latest bounce isn't matching past scripts. The countertrend rally that started after October’s peak ran just 16 weeks, shorter than the 20-week bounces seen in prior cycles — a signal, some say, that the market hasn’t found a floor yet. With historical cycle lows clustering in December 2018 and November 2022, the next bottom could land near the end of 2026. Right now, forecasters are split: one analyst sees a drop below $60,000 in the coming weeks; another thinks Bitcoin will push above $90,000 next month.
The cycle so far
Bitcoin hit $126,200 in October 2025, right on schedule for the low-to-high window within a week of the expected 4-year timing. Since then, the retreat has been grinding. The current 16-week rally is a countertrend move — not a reversal — and its shorter duration compared to past cycles (which stretched up to 20 weeks) implies the market is still working its way lower. History’s two major cycle bottoms, December 2018 and November 2022, followed similar patterns of shorter bounces before the final washout.
Cowen’s bearish call
Benjamin Cowen, a widely followed cycle analyst, forecasts a significant decline beginning in May or June 2026. His model suggests Bitcoin could slide below $60,000 — a level that would mark a roughly 50% drawdown from the October peak. Cowen’s outlook hinges on the idea that the 200-day simple moving average, which rejected prices in both 2018 and 2022, will do so again. The timing lines up with the end-of-2026 bottom prediction.
Sykodelic’s bullish counter
Not everyone sees more pain. Analyst Sykodelic predicts that Bitcoin will retest a key support level and then rally above $90,000 in June. That would require a sharp reversal from current levels and a break above the 200-day moving average — something that hasn’t happened in the bear phases of previous cycles. The two analysts’ divergence reflects a market that’s still trying to decide whether this is a dead-cat bounce or the start of a real recovery.
What the charts show
Two tracking charts — one measuring ROI from cycle peak to bear-market low, the other the multiplier from low to the next bull peak — are following the same shape as prior cycles, even if the raw dollar numbers are smaller. That consistency suggests the cycle mechanics aren’t broken, just compressed. Whether that means a repeat of 2018/2022 or a softer landing is the open question.
The next concrete test will come if Bitcoin breaks below the key support Sykodelic mentioned — or if it fails to hold above $60,000, as Cowen expects. Either way, the 200-day moving average will likely be the line in the sand.
