Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average crossed above $61,000 on May 30, 2026, a level that Blockstream CEO Adam Back highlighted the same day. The indicator, which smooths nearly four years of weekly Bitcoin closes, has risen roughly $1,000 since early May, when it first topped $60,000. The steady climb reflects continued accumulation by long-term holders, even as the spot price trades well above that line.
Why the 200-week MA matters
The 200-week moving average has acted as a support floor at every prior Bitcoin cycle bottom. The only time Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below it was during the 2022 bear market — and it quickly reclaimed that level. Investors who buy near this trend line have historically gotten a structural discount to Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Back channels Munger’s investing rule
Adam Back cited a remark attributed to Charlie Munger: “If all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks at the 200-week moving average, you would beat the S&P 500 by a large margin over time.” Back noted that Munger and Warren Buffett “never got bitcoin,” drawing a parallel to their early dismissal of the internet. He attributed that blind spot to their preference for physical businesses.
On-chain data backs the trend
On-chain metrics indicate structural buying remains intact for now, supporting the case that the moving average’s rise is more than a price fluke. While the indicator rises gradually across cycles, entries near it have historically offered a discount to Bitcoin’s long-term trend.
With the 200-week MA now above $61,000 and climbing, the question is whether the spot price can stay well above it — or if a test of that floor is coming. So far, the data points to buyers holding firm.
