Bitcoin just wrapped up its best month since November 2024, rising 25% in August. The token briefly crossed $80,000 last week before settling near $78,000. And for the first time in a while, the so-called kimchi premium is back.
The Korea premium flips
The gap between bitcoin prices on Korean exchanges and global markets turned positive after a long stretch of negative readings. CryptoQuant data shows that when this discount-to-premium shift happens, it has typically been followed by a positive trend. The premium, often called the kimchi premium, is watched as a gauge of retail sentiment in Asia and local demand.
Rachael Lucas, an analyst, said Korean retail tends to buy aggressively in risk-on phases. Because capital controls prevent easy arbitrage, that buying shows up as a price gap rather than a flow of coins. Historically, these crossings have preceded stronger bitcoin returns.
Why the premium matters
South Korea's market has its own quirks. There's no spot bitcoin ETF, retail investors can't buy foreign ETFs, and local companies can't open exchange accounts to purchase BTC. So when Korean demand spikes, it pushes prices on local exchanges above global ones. The fact that the premium flipped positive suggests retail money is coming back in a meaningful way.
Japan's ETF push
Japan is moving closer to allowing bitcoin ETFs. Lawmakers there approved amendments that bring crypto assets under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. The Financial Services Agency is now working on changes to investment-fund rules that would let investment trusts and ETFs hold digital assets directly. If those changes go through, a spot bitcoin ETF could launch as early as 2028.
That matters beyond Japan. South Korea has often looked to Japan's financial policy as a reference point. A Japanese ETF would give Asian investors a simpler way to get bitcoin exposure, and it could nudge Seoul to reconsider its own stance.
What could come next
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju believes the next stage of bitcoin's current cycle could be driven by institutional demand and exchange-traded funds outside the US. Japan's regulatory timeline is still uncertain, but the groundwork is being laid. The FSA's rule changes are the concrete next step, and a 2028 launch is the target if everything moves ahead.
