Bitcoin climbed back above $64,000 on Wednesday, a modest recovery that still leaves the asset nearly 50% below its all-time high. The move comes as two of the industry's more data-driven shops — VanEck and Bitfinex — publish notes suggesting the worst of the selloff may be over, even if the next rally isn't fully loaded yet.
The signals that say the bottom is in
VanEck's 'Bitcoin Capitulation Check' is now firing on 8 of its 12 tracked signals. That's down from a stretch over the past three months when all 12 entered their capitulation zones at some point. The firm's analysts think Bitcoin may have bottomed near $58,500 on June 30, and they expect a shallower trough this cycle than in previous downturns.
Those earlier bottoms were brutal — drawdowns of 94%, 85%, 84%, and 78%. But they all happened before the spot ETF market existed, when institutional ownership was far smaller. This cycle has also avoided the kind of systemic blowups that marked 2022, with no Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, or FTX-style collapse. That's a meaningful difference, and it's why VanEck sees the market nearing or already in an accumulation phase.
Why this cycle is different
The absence of a major failure is worth pausing on. In past downturns, capitulation was often forced by a single leveraged entity unwinding. This time, the selling has been more diffuse — and less destructive. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded more than $950 million in net inflows so far in August, a sign that institutional money is nibbling even as retail sentiment sours.
VanEck's view is that the accumulation phase could gain momentum if more capital rotates back into crypto. That's the same conclusion Bitfinex reaches, though with a sharper edge.
The missing piece
Bitfinex's analysts say two of the three conditions for a Bitcoin rally are already in place: lower expected rates and already-loose financial conditions. The third — capital flowing from equities, technology, and AI markets into crypto — hasn't materialized yet. Corporate Bitcoin treasury activity has turned negative, and stablecoin supply remains below its May record.
That leaves the market in a strange spot. The macro backdrop is supportive, but the marginal buyer hasn't shown up. Bitfinex warned that in a thin market, even relatively small changes in flows could produce an outsized move. That cuts both ways, but the firm's framing suggests the next big shift could come quickly once the rotation starts.
Scaramucci's six-figure call
SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci is more direct. He expects Bitcoin to climb back above $100,000, and he thinks the six-digit territory will come around the halving, which is scheduled to take place in less than two years. That's a longer timeline than most near-term forecasts, but it aligns with the idea that the current phase is about building a base rather than launching a new leg.
For now, the market is waiting on that capital rotation. Until it shows up, Bitcoin's recovery looks real but incomplete.
