Bitcoin could hit $200,000 if the CLARITY Act becomes law, but FM Intelligence puts the odds at just 1-in-4 — and only if the Senate passes it before the November midterms. The bill, which would decide which U.S. agency polices crypto, has sat on the Senate's to-do list since June 1 without a floor vote. Bitcoin traded at $64,671 on Monday, 49% below its all-time high of $126,080 set last October.
The 1-yard line that keeps moving
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on July 21 that Congress was on the '1-yard line' regarding the bill, a comment that briefly pushed Bitcoin toward $67,000. But the rally faded fast. Seven Democratic senators rejected the current CLARITY Act text the very next day — Catherine Cortez Masto, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, Mark Warner, and Raphael Warnock. All seven had voted for the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin law that passed in June 2025 with 18 Democrats and was signed by President Trump.
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. Breaking a filibuster requires 60 votes, so at least seven Democrats are needed. Elizabeth Warren, who voted against the GENIUS Act, also opposes the CLARITY Act. She said the new draft does nothing to prevent Trump from making further crypto income.
Wall Street's patience wears thin
Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 on July 1 — its second cut of 2026. The bank started the year at $143,000, then trimmed to $112,000 in March, each time blaming the stalled bill. Standard Chartered kept its year-end target at $100,000 in mid-July, but that now looks optimistic if the legislative logjam continues.
CK Zheng of ZX Squared Capital called passage of the CLARITY Act 'the ultimate catalyst for a new bull market.' Without it, the market is left waiting.
The Trump factor
President Trump earned more than $1.4 billion from crypto in 2025, including $799 million from World Liberty Financial and $636 million from the $TRUMP meme coin, according to a Senate Banking minority staff review of financial disclosures. Under the current CLARITY Act draft, only the Trump administration's Justice Department could enforce the new rules — state attorneys general cannot. And the rules would expire when Trump leaves office.
That sunset clause is a key reason Democrats are balking. Warren has argued the bill is tailored to protect Trump's crypto income rather than protect consumers. With the midterms approaching, the window for a deal is narrowing.
The Senate has not yet scheduled a vote on the CLARITY Act. If it doesn't pass before November, the odds of a $200,000 Bitcoin this year effectively vanish.
