Bitcoin ended July with a 7.3% gain, but the new month brought a pullback. Two consecutive daily closes below $63,000 have traders watching a key level. On-chain data now shows roughly 155,000 BTC — about 0.7% of circulating supply — moved into the $62,000–$65,000 cost-basis range during the decline. That band is now the largest concentration of supply across the market.
Supply cluster grows as buyers step in
According to a Bitfinex report, the supply cluster expanded while prices were falling. That suggests buyers absorbed the selling pressure rather than holders rushing for the exits. The cluster's size means a lot of recent buyers are sitting near break-even. If Bitcoin holds above $62,000, that zone could act as support. If it breaks, those same buyers might become sellers.
Long-term holders accumulate, short-term holders trim
The data shows a clear split. Long-term holders kept adding to their positions during the decline. Short-term holders, meanwhile, reduced their exposure near their purchase prices. That pattern typically signals conviction from patient money and nervousness from newer entrants. Spot trading volumes have fallen to levels last seen in late 2023 — not a sign of panic, but not a sign of fresh demand either.
ETF flows turn negative
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net weekly outflow of $61.5 million, ending a three-week streak of positive inflows. The reversal isn't dramatic, but it breaks the momentum. Options markets show traders paying higher premiums for downside protection, though implied volatility remains near multi-year lows. That's a cautious market, not a terrified one.
Macro headwinds: real yields near key level
The macro picture isn't helping. U.S. Q2 GDP expanded 1.5%, private domestic demand rose 3.9%, and PCE inflation ran at a 5.1% annualized pace. The 10-year real yield hit 2.41% — just nine basis points below a level analysts consider important for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Higher real yields make Bitcoin less attractive as a store of value, and that pressure isn't going away soon.
The question now is whether the $62,000–$65,000 zone can hold as support. The on-chain data says buyers are there. The macro data says they're swimming against the current.
