Bitcoin's long-term holder (LTH) supply jumped from 15 million to 15.8 million BTC over two days this week — but the surge is largely a statistical artifact from a massive Coinbase internal transfer last year, according to on-chain data. The move has skewed metrics across multiple platforms, and analysts warn the real story is short-term holders cutting losses as price struggles to hold above $75,000.
The Coinbase transfer that broke the chart
On November 22-23, 2025, Coinbase moved roughly 800,000 BTC — worth nearly $70 billion at the time — between its own internal wallets. The shuffle hit UTXO-based metrics across several on-chain trackers, making it look like a huge volume of coins had changed hands when they hadn't. That data quirk is now causing a second wave of confusion.
Why the six-month mark matters
The six-month anniversary of that transfer fell on Saturday, May 23. Under standard on-chain classification, any bitcoin that hasn't moved for 155 days graduates from short-term holder (STH) to long-term holder supply. So those 800,000 coins — still sitting in Coinbase's wallets — automatically flipped categories. That's what pushed LTH supply from 15 million to 15.8 million. It's not new accumulation. It's not HODLers doubling down. It's a clock ticking.
Price action and short-term pain
Bitcoin dipped below the psychological $75,000 level Saturday morning but recovered to around $76,490, up about 1% in the past 24 hours. The recovery looks fragile. Analyst Darkfost identified the next major resistance at the STH cost basis, which sits just above $80,000. A sustained break above that level is needed for any real recovery. Right now, short-term investors appear to be dumping at a loss rather than waiting for a bounce — the price keeps hitting resistance right around their average entry.
The key question is whether Bitcoin can punch through that $80,000 wall. If it can't, the LTH supply spike will just be a footnote to another month of sideways grind.
