Bitcoin has clawed its way back above $80,000 after bottoming near $63,000 in early April 2025, but the rally is hitting a wall that one analyst calls 'the most deceptive pattern in crypto.' The asset now faces a technical test at $84,000 that could determine whether the recovery has legs or fizzles into another leg down.
The wedge that keeps traders guessing
Since February, Bitcoin's daily chart has been forming a rising wedge — a pattern that typically favors the bears. Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader flagged the formation, warning it tends to trap bulls before a reversal. The pattern's upper boundary sits around $84,000, a level that has repeatedly rejected price over the past three months.
'It's the most deceptive pattern in crypto,' Merlijn said in a note, describing how wedges often break opposite to the prevailing trend. For Bitcoin, that means a breakdown below the wedge's lower trendline could accelerate losses.
Why $84,000 is the line in the sand
A clean move above $84,000 would weaken the bearish wedge argument. That would require a weekly close above that level to flip the setup bullish, according to the analysis. Right now Bitcoin is trading at $80,920, with a 24-hour range of $79,879 to $81,227 — well within the wedge's confines.
A rejection around $84,000, followed by a breakdown below $80,000, would open the door to lower prices. Merlijn's target in that scenario is $56,000, a drop of roughly 30% from current levels.
The downside scenario
The numbers are stark. A weekly close below $80,000 would shift the setup firmly in favor of the bearish path. That would put the wedge's measured move target — $56,000 — back in play. It's not the first time this year Bitcoin has tested that zone; the April low of $63,000 came after a sharp selloff, and a repeat could push prices even lower.
The timing isn't great. Reclaiming $80,000 took weeks, and losing it again would signal that buyers lack conviction at a key psychological level.
The next few days are critical. A daily close above $84,000 would likely trigger short squeezes and shift sentiment. But if the pattern holds true to its deceptive reputation, traders might see a fakeout before the real move. For now, the $84,000 rejection zone and the $80,000 support line are the only two levels that matter. By the end of this week, Bitcoin's chart will tell us which one holds.
