Bitcoin is trading near $60,000 after a 5% daily slide, roughly 50% below its all-time high. Three independent chart models — the Halving Clock, the Bitcoin Spiral, and moving averages — all point to a cycle bottom still ahead, likely arriving sometime in October.
Cycle indicators point to October
Analyst Jesse Olson's Halving Clock shows every prior cycle bottomed near day 900 after halving. The current cycle sits at day 775, leaving about 125 days — roughly four months — until the historical bottom window. The orange target band on that chart projects a low in the $40,000s.
The Bitcoin Spiral, which plots price on a four-year cycle arc, places 2026 and 2027 markers inside the zone where every previous low occurred. Analyst Benjamin Cowen notes that Bitcoin topped on day 1,162 of the cycle — within a week of prior peaks — and puts his base case low for October 2026.
Resistance levels overhead
Three key levels are now acting as overhead resistance: the 21-week simple moving average at $75,100, the short-term holder cost basis at $77,000, and the 200-day average at $78,900. Bitcoin has slid toward the 50% drawdown line near $63,000.
The timing isn't great for bulls. With the cycle bottom still months away, the market faces a slog through the rest of the summer.
What could change the outlook
Some analysts argue that spot ETFs, corporate treasury demand, and a sovereign reserve narrative could stretch or flatten the historical cycle pattern — meaning this time might not hew exactly to past charts. A weekly close back above $78,900 (the 200-day average) would weaken the bearish outlook significantly.
For now, the charts say wait. October is the next concrete target on the calendar.
