Benjamin Cowen expects the 10-year Treasury yield to peak before mid-November, a call that could spell relief for Bitcoin and other risk assets after a rough stretch. The yield touched 5.342% on October 1, its highest since early 2002. Cowen had flagged 5% as a soft target, but it overshot. He says 5.4% to 5.6% is still possible.
The midterm pattern Cowen is leaning on
In the last two midterm election years, 2018 and 2022, the 10-year yield topped between early October and mid-November, then fell from mid-November through December. Cowen sees a similar setup now. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September, and he expects peak fear around the Fed's October 28 meeting.
The odds of an October hike fell from 64% to 17.7% in a week. That's a big move. Cowen argues yields are climbing partly because bond traders fear the Fed will tighten too little, not too much — a counterintuitive read that fits the recent price action.
Jobs report lights a fuse under Bitcoin
Bitcoin battled 24-year-high yields last week, then jumped within minutes of the September jobs report. The report showed just 29,000 new jobs. Short sellers lost about $27.5 million in an hour after the release, according to CoinGlass data.
Weak hiring data may have eased fears of further Fed hikes. Cowen says the Fed can justify holding off by citing soft inflation and a soft labor market. He didn't mention Bitcoin directly, only that the rate path should affect risk assets. That's his usual framing — macro first, crypto second.
What could still go wrong
A bad inflation report could trigger one last bond selloff, according to Cowen. If the two-year yield falls, he said, the Fed may not need to hike as much. That's the mechanism to watch. Rates start falling in mid-November, shortly after the midterms, in his base case.
The longer view is less friendly. Cowen still expects long-term rates to climb over the next 10 to 20 years. That would keep pressure on assets that pay no yield, Bitcoin included. It's a slow grind, not a sudden shock, but it's the kind of thing that shapes a market cycle.
For now, the near-term calendar is simple. The Fed meets October 28. The midterms follow. Cowen's call is that the yield tops sometime before the Fed meeting or just after, then rolls over into December. Bitcoin's reaction to that rollover — or to another hot inflation print before it — is the next thing traders will actually see.
