Bitcoin's 30-day realized profit/loss ratio has clawed back above 1 after spending nearly two months in panic-selling territory, according to a study published this week by analyst Axel Adler. The metric, which tracks whether holders are selling at a profit or loss on aggregate, bottomed at 0.26 on February 21 — the most extreme point of the selloff — and only crossed back above 1.0 by May 10, when Bitcoin was trading around $80,000. The recovery suggests the worst of the February capitulation is behind the market, though the data also reveals a capital inflow recovery that's roughly 98% weaker than the strong phases of 2024.
How the panic-selling timeline played out
The 30-day realized profit/loss ratio fell below 0.5 on February 5, 2026, a threshold Adler identifies as panic selling. That zone persisted until March 21, meaning sellers dominated for about six weeks. The nadir came on February 21 with a ratio of 0.26 — well into distressed territory. By May 10, as Bitcoin consolidated above $80,000, the ratio had recovered to 1.13, indicating that sellers were once again realizing profits on average. Bitcoin had dropped from around $60,000 in late February to those lows, then staged a rebound that pushed price above the 50-day moving average, now near $73,000.
Capital inflows still a fraction of 2024's
Adler's analysis also tracks the Realized Cap Net Position Change, a measure of whether capital is flowing into or out of the Bitcoin network. That metric hit a low of -0.087% on February 20, signaling net outflows. It crossed above zero on May 2, and by May 10 stood at +0.008% — barely positive. For context, during the strong phases of 2024, the metric peaked at +0.534% in March and +0.472% in December. The current inflow recovery is roughly 98% weaker than those peaks, suggesting that while panic is over, new money isn't exactly rushing in.
Bitcoin's technical picture: slowing momentum near resistance
Price-wise, Bitcoin is pushing toward $82,000 but running into resistance. The $81,000–$83,000 zone lines up with the declining 100-day moving average, and volume has dropped off compared to the aggressive rebound in March and April. Buyers have been defending pullbacks above the 50-day MA, and Bitcoin continues to print higher lows. A confirmed breakout above $82,000 could open the $86,000–$90,000 range. On the flip side, failing to hold support above $78,000 would likely shift momentum toward consolidation or a deeper retracement.
What to watch next
The key question now is whether the realized profit/loss ratio can sustain above 1 as Bitcoin tests resistance. If buyers can push through $82,000 with conviction, the technical setup could attract fresh capital. If the rally stalls, the weak inflow data from Adler's study may become more worrying. Either way, the next few days around that $81,000–$83,000 band will tell us whether this is a genuine recovery or just another relief bounce.
