Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index has dropped below 30 for only the fourth time in the asset’s history, a signal that has preceded major price recoveries in past cycles. The reading comes as Bitcoin trades at $72,860, down 1.2% in the past 24 hours, and the current correction from all-time highs has now lasted 236 days.
How rare is this?
The weekly RSI fell below 30 just three times before this week: January 2015, when Bitcoin was around $200; December 2018, near $3,500; and June 2022, in the aftermath of the Luna collapse. Each of those episodes marked the final leg of a bear market, followed by a multi-year rally. The only prior instance in 2026 came in early February, when Bitcoin dipped to roughly $63,000.
What’s different this time
While the RSI is historically low, the market context looks less dire than the last two bear cycles. The current correction is 236 days old — the previous two bear markets each took 364 days from peak to trough. That leaves 128 days before the clock would match the prior downturns. But without a comparable catalytic shock — think the Luna collapse or the 2018 regulatory crackdown — analysts inside the firm tracking these trends say the market likely lacks the mechanism to sustain prices below $60,000 within that window.
Where the floor sits
Bitcoin’s long-term support band sits between $58,000 and $66,000, a zone that has historically acted as a buying range during drawn-out corrections. If the price holds that band and Bitcoin manages a monthly close above the weekly EMA and $80,000 in June 2026, the narrative could shift from “bottom confirmation” to rebuilding toward $100,000. That’s a big if — the month is only two days old.
What to watch next
The next real test is the monthly close on June 30. A reclaim above $80,000 by then would break the current downtrend on the weekly chart. A failure to hold the support band, especially below $58,000, would make this the first time an RSI oversold reading didn’t lead to a durable bottom.
