Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility fell to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% a month ago and less than half its long-run average of roughly 80%. The coin spent most of July locked between $62,265 and $66,509. Meanwhile, spot trading volumes have dried up to levels last seen in the 2023 bear market, and long-term holders quietly sold off some supply.
Volatility keeps compressing
The drop in realized volatility is stark. At 27.2%, it's below half the long-run average of about 80%. Bitcoin also sits about 9% below its 200-day moving average, a narrower discount than the 14% seen a month ago. Still, it's roughly 49% off its all-time high.
Spot volumes sink to bear-market levels
Spot volume over the trailing 30 days is down 27% from the prior month, landing in just the 10th percentile of its history. The summer slowdown is deeper than in either 2024 or 2025, pushing volumes toward levels last seen in the 2023 bear market. For traders, that means thin books and bigger price swings when moves do come.
Long-term holders trim positions
Bitcoin held for more than a year fell by about 356,000 BTC, a 2.9% drop over the month. That pushed the long-term holder share of total supply below 60% for the first time in months. The selling was concentrated in coins held one to three years. The oldest holders — those sitting on coins for over a decade — barely moved, down just 0.1%.
VanEck flags capitulation signals
VanEck's research shows 8 of 12 tracked capitulation signals are flashing, consistent with the later stages of a drawdown. Based on prior cycles, the firm sees a potential bottom forming between September and November of this year. But it cautions that historical returns following similar signal clusters are mixed, with a clear edge only over a full one-year horizon.
VanEck cautions that similar signal clusters haven't always marked a clean bottom — the edge only shows up over a full year. For now, the market is waiting to see if September brings the turn the signals point to.
