Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan thinks Bitcoin's refusal to budge on a run of bad news could be a sign the bear market has run its course. He pointed to several events that would have rattled the market in a downtrend, but prices held steady. Hougan stopped short of calling a firm bottom, framing it as a signal worth watching.
The headlines Bitcoin shrugged off
Hougan cited a handful of setbacks that Bitcoin absorbed without much price damage. Strategy's Michael Saylor sold Bitcoin reserves. STRC preferred stock slid toward $75. Odds of the Clarity Act passing fell from the mid-40s to the teens. And a $116 million Coldcard hardware wallet exploit hit the news. Each of those would have been a trigger for selling in a weaker market, he argued.
Why that matters
The lack of reaction suggests the selling pressure may be exhausted, Hougan said. He didn't declare a bottom, but he said it's a sign the bear market could be over. He described it as a signal worth watching rather than a certainty.
The next buyer
Hougan sees large wealth management platforms as Bitcoin's next marginal buyer. That's a slow-moving shift, not a single event. He noted that several advisory platforms approved Bitwise's Solana staking ETF (BSOL) even during a market down roughly 50% from its highs. He attributed that to advisor demand, not speculation.
ETF conversions and cold storage
Hougan estimated Bitwise has processed $600 million to $700 million in tax-free in-kind ETF conversions over the past year. For a hypothetical million-dollar Bitcoin holder, he suggested most assets should sit in ETFs, with a smaller portion kept in cold storage as an opt-out option. He also said ETFs are not necessarily the final form these products will take as the industry matures.
