Bitwise has published a 39-page investment report on NEAR Protocol, setting a base-case price target of $155.85 by 2030. The report, written by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Head of Research Europe Andre Dragosch, landed the same week the firm filed the final paperwork for a spot NEAR exchange-traded fund.
The two moves together put a specific number on a bet that's still waiting on a regulatory green light. Bitwise's bull case runs to $562.81 by 2030. Its bear case sits at $1.63.
Three scenarios, one very wide gap
The spread between the top and bottom targets is roughly 345x, which tells you how little consensus exists about where NEAR lands in the next five years. A base case of $155.85 assumes the network's AI-focused positioning converts into real demand. A maximum case of $562.81 requires that thesis to play out at scale. The bear case of $1.63 is closer to a write-down than a forecast — it's the floor Bitwise is willing to put on paper.
Bitwise didn't publish a timeline for when each scenario becomes more or less likely, and the report doesn't include the kind of probability weightings that would let you back into an expected value. The three numbers are standalone.
Why the ETF filing matters for the price target
The report and the ETF paperwork arriving in the same week isn't a coincidence. A spot NEAR ETF would give U.S. investors a regulated wrapper for the token, which is the same access channel that already exists for Bitcoin and Ether. Bitwise filing the final documents means the application is complete on the company's end — the next move belongs to regulators.
How much of the $155.85 base case depends on ETF approval is unclear from the facts released. Bitwise hasn't broken out an ETF-inclusive scenario versus one without it. But the timing suggests the firm sees the two as linked: research coverage builds the case, the ETF provides the vehicle.
NEAR's AI angle runs through the report
Bitwise's coverage leans on NEAR's positioning in AI-related blockchain infrastructure, though the specific technical arguments are in the 39 pages rather than the headline numbers. The $562.81 maximum case implies a market valuation that would put NEAR among the largest crypto assets by market cap, assuming supply stays roughly constant. Bitwise hasn't disclosed its supply assumptions.
Andre Dragosch's title — Head of Research Europe — is worth noting because Bitwise has been expanding its research footprint beyond the U.S. market. Hougan, as CIO, has been the public face of many of Bitwise's crypto thesis pieces. This report pairs the two bylines.
What happens next
The ETF application is now in regulators' hands. Bitwise has said nothing about a decision date, and the facts released don't include a review timeline. Until there's a ruling, the report's three targets — $1.63, $155.85, $562.81 — sit as scenarios, not forecasts with a schedule attached.
For anyone holding NEAR or watching the ETF process, the next concrete signal is the regulator's response to the final filing. Everything else is a spreadsheet exercise until then.
