André Dragosch of Bitwise has put Bitcoin's fair value at $197,000, arguing that the asset is trading well below what his model says it's worth. In a piece published by Bitcoin Magazine and authored by Patrick Green, Dragosch also flagged a specific danger level for markets: a rise of 80 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield over 20 trading days. Cross that threshold, and things get ugly across risk assets.
The speed of the move is the whole point
Dragosch's argument isn't about where yields sit. It's about how fast they get there. A slow grind higher in the 10-year gives markets time to adjust. A fast one — 80 basis points inside a month of trading — doesn't. That's the number he treats as a tripwire.
It's a distinction a lot of macro commentary skips. Traders watch the level, but the velocity is what forces positioning changes, margin calls and de-risking. Dragosch's model treats the pace of the move as the thing that actually does damage.
Where a stock selloff fits in
Dragosch says a correction in equities could push the Federal Reserve into a policy pivot, and that pivot is the catalyst he sees for a sustained Bitcoin bull run. The logic runs backwards from how most people frame it: bad news for stocks becomes good news for crypto, but only if it's bad enough to change what the Fed does.
That's the trade he's laying out. Bitcoin doesn't need equities to hold up. It needs them to break in a way that forces the Fed's hand.
A fair value number that needs the macro to cooperate
The $197,000 figure is a model output, not a price target with a timeline attached. Dragosch isn't saying Bitcoin gets there next week or next month. He's saying that's where his read of fair value sits, and the gap between that and the current price is the opportunity — conditional on the macro sequence he describes playing out.
The conditionality matters. A Fed pivot doesn't happen on its own. It happens because something forced it. Dragosch's trigger — that 80-basis-point move in the 10-year over 20 sessions — is the kind of thing that tends to precede the equity weakness that precedes the pivot.
What to watch
The 10-year Treasury yield is the number that matters here, specifically its 20-trading-day rate of change. If it approaches 80 basis points, Dragosch's framework says risk markets are in trouble — and that trouble is the setup for the bull case he's describing. If yields drift instead of spike, none of it activates.
Bitcoin's fair value gap stays theoretical until the macro gives it a reason to close. The next move in the long end of the Treasury curve is where that gets decided.
