Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas says Bitcoin has entered the final stage of its current four-year cycle. He warns there may be another leg lower before a durable bottom forms. Loukas's model portfolio just made its first buy in three and a half years — 10 BTC at $65,000.
Why the retest matters
Bitcoin's retest of February lows was expected and not a deviation from historical cycle behavior, Loukas said. The relief rally from those lows stalled near $83,000, close to the $85,000 level he had anticipated. Then Bitcoin dropped roughly 25% back toward the February lows. Loukas noted the prior cycle advance ended when Bitcoin peaked in October and subsequently broke below its 10-month moving average — a confirmation signal he relies on.
The portfolio's next move
Loukas's model portfolio now sits at roughly 58% Bitcoin and 41% cash after the $65,000 buy. He identified $53,000 as the key level. If Bitcoin reaches that price, the portfolio would use its remaining cash to return to a full Bitcoin allocation. $53,000 corresponds to the midpoint of the four-year cycle, he said. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $62,247 — about 15% above that level. The asset had already fallen roughly $20,000 in the prior two to three weeks.
Two scenarios for the bottom
Loukas assigns a 25% probability to a more bullish scenario: a double bottom forming by late summer with a later push above May highs. But his base case expects the cycle low closer to the traditional October/November window. Bitcoin is currently in month 43 of the cycle; typical lows come around months 47 to 48. Loukas argues the asset is oversold enough to bounce, possibly toward the 10-week moving average around $73,000, before resuming lower. He says Bitcoin should not trade back above the May high near $83,000 to $85,000 over the next several months unless a new cycle has begun.
Loukas's portfolio will go all in at $53,000. For now, it's 58% Bitcoin and 41% cash.
