Brent crude hit $126 per barrel this week, the highest since 2022, after President Trump extended the Iran oil blockade. U.S. Treasury yields stayed near 4.4%, putting fresh pressure on Bitcoin trading at $76,049—40% below its October 2025 peak.
Strait of Hormuz remains sealed
The Energy Information Administration confirmed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since February 28. That’s 20% of the world’s oil supply gone overnight. Middle East producers shut 7.5 million barrels per day in March. April’s outage jumped to 9.1 million barrels.
Why Treasury yields sting crypto
Yields near 4.5% make Bitcoin’s current price unsustainable. Oil spikes and Fed liquidity operations are tightening real returns. Ten-year real yields hit 1.96% on April 29. The 30-year hit 2.71%. Higher rates kill speculative appetite. Bitcoin dominance is 59.9% but the total crypto market cap only holds at $2.54 trillion.
IMF sees one common crypto factor
Researchers found a single crypto market force explains 80% of price swings. Fed tightening directly reduces risk-taking. It’s why Bitcoin crashed after the latest rate decision. Traders aren’t buying the dip this time. They’re watching the 4.5% yield ceiling like a fuse.
What’s next for oil and Bitcoin
The next EIA supply report due May 7 will show if oil inventories are holding. If yields jump above 4.5% next week, Bitcoin faces a technical breakdown. The market is nervous. That much is clear.
