An anonymous campaign staffer told NPR that they and colleagues routinely placed bets on Polymarket using internal polling data before the numbers were released to the public. The practice generated thousands of dollars per election cycle, according to the staffer. The admission marks the third distinct pattern of potential insider trading on the prediction market platform documented by NPR in three months.
Bets placed on non-public data
The staffer described a system where they'd check internal polls — numbers that could move political odds — then immediately place wagers on Polymarket before the data went public. The information wasn't available to ordinary users, giving the staffer a clear edge. In some cycles, the returns added up to thousands of dollars.
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, lets users bet on real-world events including election outcomes. The platform has grown rapidly, drawing scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers. But the staffer's account suggests that people with inside access to campaign data are exploiting the system.
Third pattern in three months
NPR has now reported three distinct insider trading patterns on Polymarket since late last year. The first involved a trader who used advance knowledge of a federal jobs report. The second centered on a user who appeared to profit from leaked information about a Supreme Court ruling. The latest, involving campaign staffers, points to a wider problem: prediction markets lack the safeguards that govern traditional financial markets.
Each case shares a common thread — someone with non-public information placed bets before the broader market could react. Unlike stocks or commodities, prediction markets aren't covered by insider trading laws at the federal level. That gap leaves platforms like Polymarket largely self-regulated.
Unaddressed regulatory gap
Federal legislation has not caught up with the growth of event contracts and prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has taken some enforcement actions — it fined Polymarket $1.4 million in 2022 for offering illegal binary options — but no law specifically prohibits insider trading on political or event-based bets. The staffer's admission underscores how easily the system can be gamed.
Several bills have been introduced in Congress to regulate prediction markets, but none have passed. The issue divides lawmakers: some see these markets as valuable forecasting tools, others worry they encourage gambling and insider manipulation. For now, the regulatory gap remains open.
The staffer said they didn't feel they were breaking any rules. They pointed to the lack of explicit guidance from the Federal Election Commission or the CFTC on whether campaign staff can trade on internal data. Polymarket's terms of service prohibit using material non-public information, but enforcement depends on users reporting violations — a system the staffer described as easy to circumvent.
Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment about the latest pattern. The company has previously said it cooperates with regulators and takes steps to police its platform. Whether those steps are enough is the question that hangs over the 2024 cycle.
