Cardano (ADA) fell 3.2% over the past 24 hours to $0.1607, pushing its monthly loss to 35.6% and its yearly decline to 73.2%. A bearish flag breakdown pattern on the daily chart suggests further downside is possible — unless bulls can defend the $0.157 support level. All eyes are now on the upcoming Leios scaling upgrade testnet, expected around June 23, which some see as the next potential catalyst for the token.
Derivatives and sentiment
Derivatives data paints a similarly cautious picture. The long-to-short ratio stands at 0.96, meaning slightly more traders are betting on a decline than on a rebound. Futures open interest has fallen to about $348 million, continuing a slide that began in mid-May and signaling lower speculative engagement. The Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric has also dropped sharply, a sign that many recent holders are realizing losses — a capitulation pattern often seen near local bottoms but not a guarantee of a reversal.
The Leios upgrade as a potential spark
Cardano developers are preparing to launch the scaled-down testnet for the Leios upgrade, a scalability improvement that aims to increase transaction throughput on the network. The testnet is expected around June 23. While upgrades do not always translate into immediate price gains, the timing and technical focus could reignite interest in the project. For now, the market is watching whether that date will coincide with a stabilization of the $0.157 support level.
Trading volume over the past 24 hours reached $368.8 million, above the recent average but still well below levels seen during the mid-May open interest peak. The next few days will be critical: if $0.157 fails to hold, the path to $0.13 opens up. If it holds, a test of $0.172 becomes the immediate target. All of that happens before the Leios testnet goes live.
