Cardano's ADA traded above $0.2200 on Monday, steadying after a roughly 12% decline the previous week that pushed the token below a key trendline. The asset has now lost more than 10% in October, and derivatives data show traders pulling back rather than adding to bets.
Open interest in Cardano futures fell to $465.87 million on Monday from $549.14 million a week earlier — a drop of about 14.5%. Funding rates for perpetual ADA contracts stayed positive at 0.0032%, meaning longs are still paying shorts to hold their positions.
Trendline break puts the 50-day EMA in focus
ADA broke below trendline support near $0.2321 last week, a level that had propped up the price through several tests. The token now trades below its 50-day exponential moving average near $0.2290 and well under its 200-day EMA around $0.2395.
Momentum indicators aren't flashing a buy signal. The MACD sits below zero with a negative histogram, and the relative strength index is around 41 — a reading that shows sellers in control without yet hitting oversold territory. In practice, that leaves room for further downside before a technical bounce becomes likely.
Large holders add a sliver while mid-tier wallets trim
On-chain positioning offers a mixed picture. Wallets holding more than 100 million ADA controlled 15.99% of circulating supply, up slightly from 15.95% the week before. Wallets in the 10 million to 100 million ADA range slipped to 38.11% from 38.27%.
The shift is small — a few basis points — but it suggests the largest holders aren't rushing for the exits while mid-sized accounts are doing some light distribution. Neither move is large enough to call a trend on its own.
Downside levels: $0.20 first, then the August low
The psychological $0.20 mark is the first reference point if selling resumes. Below that, the August 30 low near $0.1894 stands as the next structural support, roughly 14% to 15% under current prices.
On the upside, ADA needs to reclaim the 50-day EMA at $0.2290 before the former trendline near $0.2321 comes back into play. The 200-day EMA at $0.2395 is the bigger hurdle — a level that would signal the medium-term downtrend has at least paused.
What to watch this week
Futures open interest will be the number to track. If the 14.5% decline continues, it would suggest traders are closing positions rather than shorting into weakness — a pattern that often precedes a period of consolidation. A rebound in open interest alongside a falling price would point the other way.
Funding rates are also worth monitoring. The current positive reading means longs are still paying, a setup that can unwind quickly if spot prices dip toward $0.20. For now, ADA is holding its ground above $0.22, but the trendline break and sub-zero MACD keep the burden of proof on buyers.
