Cardano’s native token ADA has shed more than a third of its value over the past seven days, touching lows not seen since early 2025. At time of writing, the coin trades at roughly $0.1568 — a 16% drop in just the last 24 hours. The selloff has pushed on-chain valuation metrics into territory that, historically, has marked the end of major corrections.
Key levels on the radar
Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson flagged two crucial price points if the downtrend continues: $0.1097, which he calls the “Thermo Price,” and $0.03478, or the “Delta Price.” Thermo Price is calculated as the blockchain’s cumulative revenue in dollars divided by current circulating supply — think of it as the network’s historical production cost. Delta Price is the gap between the Realized Price (what holders paid on average) and Thermo Price, linking investors’ cost basis to validators’ costs.
Rare territory
According to Wedson, Cardano’s price has only ever touched the Delta Price twice in its history and has never once reached the Thermo Price. That means a drop to $0.034 would be unprecedented — and possibly a buying opportunity of a lifetime, if the network fundamentals hold up. “The $0.05 to $0.10 range could be an interesting accumulation zone for ADA if additional bearish pressure develops,” Wedson noted.
What to watch
If the selling doesn’t push Cardano any lower, Wedson advises investors to hold off and wait a few months before buying. A retest at higher levels — after the dust settles — could offer a safer entry. For now, the market is watching whether ADA can find support above $0.10 or if the broader crypto rout drags it toward that rare Delta Price mark.
