Cardano (ADA) is stuck below $0.168 after failing to break the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), even as large holders scooped up roughly 120 million tokens since Monday. The price rejection highlights a tug-of-war between bullish whale activity and bearish signals from the derivatives market.
Mixed signals from leverage and funding
On Friday, ADA's long-to-short ratio stood at 1.07, meaning slightly more leveraged traders were betting on a price increase than a decline. That might sound bullish, but the perpetual futures funding rate tells a different story. It turned negative Thursday and hovered around -0.014 on Friday, a sign that short positions were paying longs to keep their trades open. Negative funding typically points to bearish sentiment among derivatives traders.
The disconnect between the long-to-short ratio and funding rates suggests that while more traders are long by count, the big money in perpetuals is leaning short. That could cap any near-term upside.
Whales loading up
Despite the bearish derivatives picture, wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA, plus those with 10 million to 100 million ADA, have accumulated roughly 120 million tokens since Monday. That's a notable buying spree from the largest holders, often called whales. Meanwhile, wallets with 100,000 to 1 million ADA have shown relatively little activity, indicating that mid-sized investors are sitting on the sidelines.
The whale accumulation suggests some big players see value at current levels, but it hasn't been enough to push ADA above the 50-day EMA at $0.176.
Technical resistance and support levels
ADA remains below all three key moving averages: the 50-day EMA ($0.176), the 100-day EMA ($0.202), and the 200-day EMA ($0.267). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 48, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD is just barely above the zero line, hinting at weak bullish momentum.
A previously broken long-term downtrend line near $0.197 has flipped into resistance. On the downside, support sits at $0.150 (a horizontal level) and $0.138 (a Fibonacci retracement level).
The key question is whether the whale accumulation can overcome the bearish funding and technical resistance. If ADA can reclaim the 50-day EMA, the next hurdles are the downtrend line and the 100-day EMA. A failure to hold above $0.150 could open the door to a test of the $0.138 Fibonacci support.
For now, the market is waiting to see if the whales keep buying or if the shorts regain control.
