Cardano (ADA) is up 8% over the past week to roughly $0.17, but the move is being driven almost entirely by big-money players. Data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment shows that whale addresses — those holding at least 1 million ADA — have boosted their collective stash to 25.6 billion coins, representing nearly 70% of the circulating supply. Meanwhile, retail investors have been trimming their positions.
Whale holdings hit 70% of circulating supply
Analyst Ali Martinez noted that whales bought 30 million ADA in the past month — worth more than $5 million at current prices. The accumulation comes as smaller holders reduce exposure, a pattern that often precedes a volatility event. When whales buy and retail sells, the concentration of supply can amplify price swings in either direction.
RSI flashes oversold but exchange flows tell another story
ADA's Relative Strength Index sits at around 28, deep in oversold territory. That typically signals a potential bounce, but the exchange flow data complicates the picture. Inflows to exchanges have outpaced outflows, suggesting that some holders are preparing to sell. The divergence between the RSI reading and the exchange flow trend leaves the short-term direction uncertain.
Price targets range from $0.22 to $5
Analysts are split on where ADA goes from here. Master of Crypto predicts a move to $0.219 if the current uptrend holds. Javon Marks sees a much bigger rally to $2.90, citing a key converging and breaking point on the charts. Celal Kucuker goes even further, calling for $5. All three projections rely on the whale accumulation continuing and broader market conditions cooperating — neither of which is guaranteed.
The next few days will test whether the whale buying can absorb the selling pressure visible in exchange inflows. If inflows dry up and the RSI stays oversold, the path to $0.22 looks plausible. If the selling picks up, $0.17 may not hold.
